A university is just a group of buildings gathered around a library. ~Shelby Foote

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The Ron Paul Freedom Express Gains Steam

Ron Paul is bringing together an unlikely coalition of Libertarians, non-fundamentalist Conservatives, anti-war Republicans, strict Constitutionalists, and-- as Mojo informed me-- a few nutbags like Mel Gibson's dad. And, amazingly enough, it is working.

Will it matter next November? I dunno. Probably not-- but in an age of discontent when news, rumor and opinion travel faster than they ever have before... who knows? Maybe.

I do know that Ron Paul is speaking for an awful lot of people who feel like nobody in the Republican or Democratic establishment knows, nor cares, what they believe in and wish for their country. To some degree, I think Paul's success is a reflection of the Democrats "Anybody but Bush" strategy-- people are looking at Bush and agreeing that they do not wish to continue the status quo, but they are also looking at the proposed alternatives and thinking, "Yeah, but not them either."

Don't underestimate the power of positivity-- politics has been all about the negatives for many years, but the last time somebody captured the other side it went pretty well for him.

Is it morning again in America?


Who, perchance, are you thinking of when you say "...and it seemed to go pretty well for him"?
Well I was talking about Ronald Reagan-- which is why I threw the "morning again in America" line. But I think the rapid ascension of Bill Clinton to become the Democratic nominee in 1991 and 92 was pretty similar. Both tapped into a huge sense of discontent with a message of hope and change and both had strong, charismatic personalities.
From the latest Marist New Hampshire Primary Poll:

Question Wording: If the New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Mitt Romney - 33%
Rudy Giuliani - 22%
John McCain - 13%
Ron Paul - 7%
Mike Huckabee - 7%
Fred Thompson - 5%
Tom Tancredo - 1%
Duncan Hunter - <1%
Undecided - 12%
(percentages reflect responses of likely voters)

Question Wording: Regardless of whom you are planning to vote for, which Republican candidate [for president] do you think has the best chance of beating the Democrat next November?

Rudy Giuliani - 40%
Mitt Romney - 37%
John McCain - 9%
Fred Thompson - 3%
Ron Paul - 2%
Mike Huckabee - 2%
Duncan Hunter - <1%
Tom Tancredo - <1%
Undecided - 7%
(percentages reflect responses of likely voters)

Paul does seem to be tapping into discontent, but I don't think that he has the backing to truly go anywhere. If his poll numbers and backing would happen to rise dramatically, then he will be covered more by the media; and at that point Paul will need to deal with the national media asking pointed questions regarding his support from white supremecists, 9/11 "truthers," and other odd fringe groups. If the media starts to pose such questions, his broader support could quickly drop-off due to guilt-by-association, especially if he and his campaign don't respond well.

You may find him strong on the issues, but I just don't see him as a realistically strong or viable candidate.
Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?