Libertarian Librarian

In a blatant and totally self-serving attempt to boost readership, I am including my annual post-draft preview of my fantasy football league here, and here only. All the folks in the league have to come here to read my erudite pearls of fantasy football wisdom. Or something. For those that don't care about fantasy football... well, try reading anyway. There may be some funny bits stuck in there from time to time. And if you want to see the team rosters to make your own observations and comparisons, please feel free-- they can be found here.

Right. Here goes:

The Update’s Annual Post-Draft Pre-Season Antibellum Analysis.

Okay, it’s not really antibellum. But that’s not my fault-- it’s just really hard to write a column for the year 2005 in the years preceding the Civil War. And if I could travel back to the mid-19th Century South, would I really bother writing about my fantasy football league’s draft?

I think not.

Anyway. Here’s the annual roundup of the draft, ranking each team as I see ‘em, which usually means very little except that the team I pick to finish last will make the playoffs and, quite likely, take home the title. Oh, and the team I like the best will be scrambling to avoid the Barrel Bowl.

Right. Write. Onwards then in alphabetical order of team name (owner in paranthesis):

Barkeeps (Tony Luther)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: J.P. Losman, Priest Holmes, Thomas Jones, Terry Glenn, Reche Caldwell, and Eric Johnson.

Quality Backups: Drew Brees, Michael Bennett.

Possible Steals: Holmes, Tyrone Calico, Troy Williamson

Final Analysis: Tony always drafts RBs in the first three rounds. Always. This year, he one- upped himself taking RBs in the first four rounds. And yet, he still has questions at RB. He did not get Larry Johnson to back up Holmes (had to take a TE instead-- something about actually starting one of those), Michael Bennett is risky at best as your third back, and Tatum Bell in the second may wind up being the worst selection of the entire draft. J.P. Losman in the fifth was quite odd, considering Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, David Carr, Kerry Collins, Brett Favre and Jake Plummer were all taken later. I will be surprised if Losman outperforms more than two of those gentlemen. Taking RBs and QBs in rounds 1-5 leaves you a tad thin at WR-- especially when you take a TE in round 6. Terry Glenn is the first WR taken? Ick. Caldwell and Calico could be okay, and one of eiter Marcus Robinson or Troy Williamson could emerge as the #2 guy in Minnesota, but... boy, overall this is a weak group of WRs. In Holmes and Thomas Jones/Cedrick Benson, Tony has one of the best starting backfields in the league-- but he is weak at every other position except, maybe, tight end. If Holmes can put up 13-15 points a week, Tony will win some games... but there are an awful lot of question marks here.

Projected Finish: 5-8.

Centurions (Adam Freitag)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Marc Bulger, Edgerrin James, DeShaun Foster, Eddie Kennison, Eric Moulds and Ben Watson.

Quality Backups: Chris Brown, Mushin Muhammad.

Possible Steals: Brown (3rd), Muhammad (7th), Watson (15th)

Final Analysis: I did not have James pegged at #2 overall, and I likely would have taken Holmes, but I don’t think Adam will be disappointed with Edge’s output by any means. Foster and Brown make a nice 2-3 punch at RB, though I remain skeptical that either of them will play in even 80% of their games, much less all of them. I think Muhammad might actually be pretty good now that the Bears have jettisoned Hutchinson. Ben Watson was a bargain in the 15th and actually the guy I was going to take that round. RBs in the first 3 rounds limits your WR options, but Moulds and Muhammad should be serviceable. Whether they will be good enough to get Adam to the playoffs or just keep him around mediocre... well, time will tell. I like Bulger in the mid-4th, and Adam played some serious vulture ball with the number of backup RBs he selected.

Projected Finish: 6-7.

Chocolate Foam (Jim Ulrich)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Trent Green, Domanick Davis, Fred Taylor, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Dallas Clark.

Quality Backups: T.J. Alphabet, Bobby Engram, Brandon Lloyd.

Possible Steals: Fred Taylor, T.J. Alphabet, Frank Gore.

Final Analysis: Jimbo stuck to his belief in Domanick and made him #3 overall. A bold pick. I probably would have taken Holmes (still having trouble wrapping my head around him falling to #6). Taylor is a bargain at #26 if he can stay healthy. Not a small if. Green at the top of 5 was nice, and, not surprisingly, the Foam is well stocked at wide receiver. If Barlow continues to blow and Gore turns out to be the guy in SF, the Foam are set at RB-- if not, there is precious little behind Taylor and Davis. There were better backup QBs than Roethlisberger available-- something I know Jim knows, yet I had to mention simply because... well, I wanted to. Overall, this team should do well if the starting RBs put up anything like their career averages.

Projected Finish: 8-5.

Diamond Boys (Frank Cartwright)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Donovan McNabb, Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, Nate Burleson, Reggie Wayne, Jermaine Wiggins.

Quality Backups: Jerome Bettis, Plaico Burress, Derrick Mason.

Possible Steals: Burleson, Bettis, Burress, Mason.

Final Analysis: I pick last again! Ugh... I pick 13th! Other than ripping on me for being slow-- which was pretty much universal and well-deserved-- that’s about all we heard out of Frank this year. Despite his horrible, horrible draft position-- hear that? World’s smallest violin-- Frank put together a pretty solid looking squad. Jones and Johnson are a solid 1-2 RB punch, and Bettis and/or Kevin Faulk provide decent depth at the critical RB spot. Burleson and Wayne should both be in the 1200-1400 range, and Wiggins could be even better than last year with Culpepper spreading the ball around more.

Projected Finish: 7-6.

Dimestick Cowboys (Cedric “CJ” Tate)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Carnell Williams, Andre Johnson, Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael.

Quality Backups: Lee Suggs, Eric Parker, Tom Brady.

Possible Steals: Suggs, Matt Jones.

Final Analysis: Nothing wrong with Alexander in the five hole, but Cadillac Williams coming back around in the 2nd seemed a reach. Especially since there were established quality RBs still available, and he didn’t get Pittman later. If Suggs recovers fully and can stay healthy, however, he may make CJ forget all about Cadillac. I’m not a big Andre Johnson fan, but if he’s going to be huge, this would be the year. Chambers could also break out if Miami finally has a QB that can get the ball to him. And what was up with taking Amani Toomer in the 4th? Yikes. That’s a great pick five years ago. Maybe even three years ago. This year? Not so much. But maybe Cedric knows something the rest of us don’t.

Projected Finish: 4-9.

Fearsome Canines (Scott Craine)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Carson Palmer, Ladanian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, Chad Johnson, Ashley Lelie, Antonio Gates.

Quality Backups: Larry Fitzgerald, Kurt Warner.

Possible Steals: Warner, Labrandon Toefield.

Final Analysis: If Fred Taylor gets hurt, not that unlikely, Toefield could be the man. Which would be cool, since Toefield is such a rocking name. But I digress. I don’t buy the Palmer hype quite as much as others. Top 10, maybe, but I don’t see top 5. L.T. is LT. No worries. Brown and Ricky Williams should provide good production at the #2 RB spot, and Johnson and Lelie are very good and good respectively. Gates could make his case for being the best TE in the league this year... or he could schlub around not that he has a long-term deal. I suspect the former is more likely than the latter, so the Canines could be primed for another playoff run. There’s not a ton of depth here, however, so while the starters look good, the long road of attrition that is the NFL could play havoc with Scottie’s group.

Projected Finish: 7-6.

Hairballs (Nick Weber)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Jake Plummer, Jamal Lewis, Warrick Dunn, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Doug Jolley.

Quality Backups: Donald Driver, Brandon Stokley, Marshall Faulk.

Possible Steals: Plummer, Samie Parker.

Final Analysis: If Lewis is healthy, and stays that way, this is a powerful lineup. Plummer is the new Trent Green-- no respect, but he puts up great numbers week in and week out. Especially in this league, where TDs and interceptions matter not a whit. Moss and Smith and Jolley are all somewhat of a question mark, but all should produce most excellently. Hey, Frank, since you think Steve is only the third best Smith, how about you give me 10-1 odds that he outscores both Rod and Jimmy this year? I like the guy, and with Muhammad gone, I see no reason why he won’t put up huge numbers this year. If not, Driver or Stokley will.

Projected Finish: 6-7.

Knights Who Say Ni (Rod Morgan)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Michael Vick, Deuce McAllister, J.J. Arrington, Terrell Owens, Kerry Colbert, Todd Heap.

Quality Backups: Mewelde Moore?, Kevin Curtis, Travis Taylor.

Possible Steals: Kevin Curtis, Travis Taylor, Todd Heap.

Final Analysis: Hmm… McAllister is playing for a team with no home, Arrington plays for a team that has no offensive line, Owens plays for a team that doesn’t like him, and Heap hasn’t actually played for a team in nearly a year. To say that the Knights have a few question marks is to redundantly state the already overly obvious. Or something. Still, Vick is explosive—perhaps for the Knights if he gets himself broke—and the Deuce may well be loose. I dunno, this team could go anything from 4-9 to 10-3.

Projected Finish: Between 3-10 and 11-2? No? Okay: 7-6.

Metal Mayehm (Steve Peters)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Daunte Culpepper, Kevin Jones, Kevan Barlow, Darrell Jackson, Anquan Boldin, L.J. Smith.

Quality Backups: William Green, Larry Johnson, Greg Lewis.

Possible Steals: Larry Johnson, William Green, Deion Branch.

Final Analysis: Not bad. Not bad at all for a rookie. Of course, Steve has been involved in many other fantasy football leagues prior to joining us, but it’s still an adjustment going to yardage only. I think Kevin Jones might be a bit overrated, mostly because he’s a Lion, but there’s nothing wrong with him and Culpepper in the first 2 rounds. Kevan Barlow, however, could be this team’s undoing—or he could push them into the playoffs. He’s an enigma wrapped in a conundrum inside… well, he’s a mystery. My personal feeling is he sucks, but I could be wrong. If he does, William Green may fill in nicely for a while, and Larry Johnson may turn to gold if Priest Holmes’ recent injury history is any guide.

Projected Finish: 6-7.

Motor City Cheeseheads (Bill Hitt, et al.)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Peyton Manning, Willis McGahee, Reuben Droughns, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward, Jason Witten.

Quality Backups: Jimmy Smith, Byron Leftwich, Michael Pittman(?).

Possible Steals: Antwaan Randle El, Droughns.

Final Analysis: Welcome to the league, rookie. Actually, all of these boys have been in other leagues, and they did alright. Thin, with questions, at running back, but they are far from unique in that. I like McGahee a lot, and Manning is awesome, though a bit less so in our league where all those TDs count for naught. If any of the RBs besides McGahee step up, the Cheeseheads could compete for the playoffs. If not… well, they may be struggling to avoid the Barrel Bowl.

Projected Finish: 6-7.

Posts (John Malmquist)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Kerry Collins, Corey Dillon, Mike Anderson, Roy Williams, Jerry Porter, Tony Gonzalez.

Quality Backups: Lamont Jordan, Willie Parker, Keenan McCardell.

Possible Steals: Willie Parker, Patrick Ramsey.

Final Analysis: The Posts are in the enviable position of having excess running backs. They may be the only team in the league to be in that position. That said, there are questions at wide receiver. But the TE position is superb, and the QB should be good to excellent. Overall, the Posts start a talented first 6 and have the best RB depth in the league—which is often enough to propel a team all the way to the championship. Now, if they weren’t such friggin’ deadbeats.

Projected Finish: 8-5.

Renaissance Men (Russ Alm)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Aaron Brooks, Brian Westbrook, Ahman Green, Joe Horn, Santana Moss, Jeb Putzier.

Quality Backups: Duce Staley, David Carr, Dante Stallworth.

Possible Steals: Staley, Carr, Putzier.

Final Analysis: There are a lot of Saints on this team, and given the mess that is New Orleans right now, I’m not sure that any of them are going to produce as well as they otherwise would have. I like the combo of Westbrook and Green, and Moss could thrive if Ramsey is rejuvenated as I hear he is. We’ll see. Putzier could push Witten for the third best TE in the game. Overall, good balance, and Staley will eventually see playing time, so there’s some depth at RB as well.

Projected Finish: 8-5.

Snowmobilers (Dave Craine)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Jake Delhomme, Tiki Barber, Steven Jackson, Drew Bennett, Michael Clayton, Alge Crumpler.

Quality Backups: Najeh Davenport, Lee Evans, Justin McCareins.

Possible Steals: Evans, Clayton, Robert Ferguson.

Final Analysis: Every year I don’t like Dave’s team and every year they kick ass. Why break with tradition? Actually, I don’t dislike his team. I think it’s about as good as mine, which is to say average. I don’t see Barber repeating last year’s remarkable production, nor am I that big of a Drew Bennett fan. But I love Michael Clayton, Alge Crumpler has the coolest name in football, and there is some depth to the roster. So, once again, I predict the Snowmobilers will not make the playoffs. There you go, Dave, playoff ticket punched.

Projected Finish: 6-7.

Stumbling Alcoholics (Troy Boeldt)
Projected Opening Day Lineup: Brett Favre, Curtis Martin, Clinton Portis, Javon Walker, Laverneus Coles, Jeremy Shockey.

Quality Backups: Brian Griese, Rod Smith, Antonio Bryant.

Possible Steals: Reggie Brown, Bryant, Shockey, Moe Williams.

Final Analysis: I don’t see C-Mart having quite the year he had last year, but, then again, Portis is likely to have a better year than last year, so call it a wash. Walker is an excellent #1 WR, and Favre may be heaving the ball even more this year than last. I am not sold on Coles as a great #2 guy, but if Shockey can stay healthy, a fifth round pick is a bargain for him. If. Reggie Brown and Antonio Bryant could both be 1200+ yard guys. I see 1000 easy out of each them, at the minimum. Overall, good starting lineup, and decent to good depth.

Projected Finish: 7-6.

Labels: Sports